Threat of Shadow Inventory Diminishing: Barclays

Imagine what your value will be worth after all these “shadow inventory” is finally released. Again, I hold a real estate license and can tell you I have access to some of this shadow inventory and it is not pretty to look at. Barclays report below is only one source!

In Michigan they are demolishing homes like you cannot imagine…But I may know exactly why…”Greece” is a hint.

BY: CARRIE BAY DSNEWS.com

Analysts at Barclays Capital say the industry’s ominous shadow inventory is close to topping out.

New research published by the firm says the supply of homes nearing REO status, defined as 90 or more days delinquent or in the process of foreclosure, will peak this summer and then begin falling gradually as the market becomes stable enough to absorb 130,000 distressed properties a month.

“While we expect REO levels to remain elevated, the trickle of homes from foreclosure into REO implies moderate levels of inventory reaching market,” Barclays said in its report.

The company estimates the current REO supply to be 478,000 and expects it to rise to 536,000 by late 2011.

Barclays’ delinquency pipeline snapshot shows that as of February, there were 2.4 million mortgages at least 90 days past due and 2.1 million more already winding through the foreclosure process, which combined makes up a shadow inventory of 4.5 million.

It’s a daunting tally and could grow larger as foreclosure alternatives are exhausted, but Barclays’ model forecasts 4.7 million distressed sales over the next three years, with 1.6 million coming in 2010, 1.6 million in 2011, and 1.5 million in 2012.

The research firm notes, however, that an orderly liquidation of shadow inventory will require both “more robust household formation and job growth.”

Some market indicators, though, are looking favorable. This week, Fannie Mae reported only a minor increase in its March serious delinquency rate – 5.59 percent versus 5.51 percent in February. RealtyTrac also reported a 12 percent month-to-month decline in default notices for April.

Barclays says this data supports its forecast that the industry is only a few months away from reaching peak levels of shadow inventory.

Advertisements

House Bill Would Allow Those Facing Foreclosure to Stay on as Renters

BY: CARRIE BAY DSNEWS 4/29/2010

Two House Democrats have introduced a bill to create a “right to rent” for homeowners facing foreclosure.

The bill, sponsored by Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva (D-Arizona) and Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), would allow a family receiving a foreclosure notice to petition a judge to stay in their home as renters under a 5-year lease. The judge would appoint an independent appraiser to set fair market rental value, which would be allowed to rise with inflation.

In a statement to the press, Grijalva cited the latest market data from RealtyTrac, which showed that foreclosure activity nationwide rose by 19 percent in March, setting a new monthly record of 367,000 filings. RealtyTrac also found that for the first three months of 2010, foreclosures are up by 60 percent compared to 2009 and roughly 6 million mortgages are at least 60 days delinquent.

Grijalva called the latest statistics “an indication of the profound, historic crisis we face and the need for creative solutions like Right to Rent. I call on the rest of Congress to take a hard look at why we’ve allowed things to get this bad,” he said.

According to Grijalva, the administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) just isn’t doing enough to keep pace with the nation’s mortgage problems. Between February and March, the number of people who received assistance through HAMP but subsequently became delinquent again nearly doubled from 1,499 to 2,879.

“HAMP is simply an insufficient response to this crisis,” Grijalva said. “Right to Rent is a fair and sensible solution for struggling homeowners. Banks will still get reliable rental income, and families will be able to stay in their homes and significantly lower their monthly housing costs.”

Grijalva called the terms of the bill (H.R. 5028) “a workable and equitable compromise for lenders, families, and communities.”

He said, “Passing this bill will help neighborhoods avoid the spiral of decay, crime, and lower property values that often follows mass vacancies without creating any new bureaucracy or transferring a dime of taxpayer money to homeowners or banks.”

To prevent use of the program by speculators, eligibility for the “right to rent” initiative would be limited to homes purchased at or below the median price for their metropolitan statistical area, and must have been the homeowner’s principal residence for no less than 2 years, Grijalva explained. Only mortgages originated before July 1, 2007 would be eligible.